We have been hearing these rumors for quite some time about an American strike on Iran. Hear me now and believe me later, Dubya's gonna do it.
You think gas prices are high now? You ain't seen nuthin' yet. That is, if you can find any at all...
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As I observe stockmarket indexes and overall historical patterns, I've learned how speculation and cronyism inspired speculation works.
The OIX chart and $OSX chart, representing oil over numerous years, are displaying the typical exponential growth curve part that's run nearly vertical all year.
Both suggest we're on the verge of the final spike upward (October through March the most likely peak period) and I would not be surprised if it breaks the $5/gal barrier (though exceeding $5.25 seems unlikely). But while doomsdayers and peak oil analysts would warn of worse, this oil bubble like all oil bubbles, will collapse, yoyo some and slide us back over a 2 to 3 year period. We'll likely see $2.60 - and maybe $1.75 eventually - before that bottoms out.
So yeah, the short term pinch will be a serious pain for many, with a recession inescapable as part of it. Ultimately, this rise is mostly driven by cronyism and the speculation that they'd better get what they can while they can before the Crony-in-chief is replaced by a Democrat.
Despite their denials, I believe money alone defines most of the Bush/Cheney foreign policy decisions.
They'd prefer puppet replacement regimes to gain near total power over oil pricing in the future but the odds of achieving that are slimmer than they guessed.So they'll settle for sweetheart deals in Northern Iraq.
So get out your bikes, scooters and bus passes and hold on, as it's gonna be a rather unsettling ride!
kevin, all your calculations go out the window when the bombs start falling. A lot of oil gets transported through the Persian Gulf. It is called the Persian Gulf for a reason. Iranians are not Arab, but Persians, and can virtually stop all oil from moving out of the Gulf.
Perhaps Dick and Dubya are searching for their Thermopylae. The number 300, which was the title of the movie depicting the legendary battle of yore, represents something entirely different this time in my mind.
The cost for a gallon of gas and the number of Republican casualties at the ballot box.
Which is it?
Is Bush going to seize power and refuse to give it up in 2008 or start another war or cause secret hurricanes to hit poor neighborhoods or work a secret deal with aliens (not the illegal immigrant kind the little green kind) to become king of the planet?
Bush Derangement Disorder has totally eaten your brain.
-red
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